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It's Tuesday, August 25th: Welcome to another edition of The Byte.
In this piece, Engy Ziedan, Ph.D., Co-Founder and Chief Scientific Officer at Protege, argues that healthcare is adopting AI based on tests that don't measure what actually matters. More than 300 million people use ChatGPT weekly for health questions and nearly every US physician has consulted AI for clinical guidance this year, but the benchmarks we use to decide which systems to trust are static, gameable, and already producing contradictory results. In June, two respected studies reached opposite conclusions about whether general-purpose or specialized models give better clinical advice. Ziedan breaks down why: test design choices, data that doesn't reflect real practice, no independent referee, and incentives that reward passing the test over improving care. Drawing on Protege's healthcare data partner network that spans hundreds of millions of patients and nearly a trillion clinical notes, she shows how something as simple as answer choice ordering can change a model's diagnosis, and how 77% of the explained variation in a common surgical decision comes down to one thing: who the surgeon is.
Ziedan's argument isn't that healthcare AI doesn't work. It's that we're measuring the wrong thing, and the stakes are too high to keep guessing.
How Are We Measuring Healthcare AI? A Healthcare Economist Explains
by Engy Ziedan

At Protege, our DataLab research team tackles frontier data challenges across domains. In healthcare, we provide data to AI model builders, with a data partner network spanning hundreds of millions of patients, billions of patient encounters, almost a trillion clinical notes, and tens of millions of multi-modal patient records. In the United States alone, we estimate this covers ~20% of the country’s economic activity.
This gives us a unique lens into how AI is being deployed in healthcare and what the pitfalls are. We are seeing a huge clinical readiness gap - between how AI performs in test settings and how it performs inside a real clinical workflow.
Why does that scare me? We’re letting AI into healthcare based on tests that are flawed. It’s like letting a doctor practice on patients simply because they did well on the MCAT.
Let’s start with what we already know. The cat is out of the bag. AI in healthcare is here. More than 300 million people use ChatGPT weekly for healthcare questions. Almost every physician in the United States has referred to AI for clinical guidance this year - and data shows that doctor’s offices are increasingly using AI to document patient visits.

The question is no longer whether healthcare will adopt AI. The question is now: “Will this AI actually make healthcare better?”
Healthcare is betting that AI will save time, reduce costs, and improve care. But right now, we are choosing which systems to deploy based on a static test. Instead, healthcare needs to measure effectiveness: did the system reduce mistakes, lower costs, give clinicians meaningful time back, or help patients live longer?
Current tests can produce contradictory answers
Today, organizations are using benchmarks to evaluate healthcare AI. Think of a benchmark like a standardized test that AI models take to measure how well they perform on set tasks.
The problem in healthcare is that current benchmarks are static: they are a test with the same pre-defined questions or cases, with a predetermined answer key. This is useful for testing a very specific capability under controlled conditions… but not for showing how AI performs during messy, complex, back-and-forth healthcare situations. Which is exactly how medicine is practiced.
The test is also becoming unreliable. In June, a Nature Medicine paper concluded that general-purpose models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini provided better clinical guidance than specialized healthcare AI models like OpenEvidence (used by 65%+ of US physicians). Two weeks later, another study reached the opposite conclusion. In a blinded evaluation, 149 medical experts across more than 30 specialties rated OpenEvidence more highly on accuracy, usefulness, source quality, and verifiability than general-purpose-models.
Both studies appeared in respected publications, with opposite results. How?
It’s not scientific misconduct or bad faith. It’s because medical AI evaluations — the tests — are full of consequential choices. What cases do you include? How do you phrase the prompt? Which model settings do you use? How much reasoning should you include? What goes into the test rubric?
What we ultimately care about is effectiveness: whether that performance improves care in the messy environment where patients, clinicians, incentives, workflows, and costs collide. Getting a perfect MCAT score does not mean you’re a good health practitioner. In the same way, acing a static healthcare benchmark does not mean the AI model is ready for hospital use.
I’m not the only person concerned. Leading AI researchers from OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, alongside clinicians from Stanford, Oxford, Scripps, Mass General, and ARPA-H, have called for a “rigorous, task-based framework” to define and measure medical AI “superintelligence.”
But why is this so hard? The quick answer: building fair, unbiased healthcare benchmarks is much harder than it sounds.
#1 - Test Design: Does the test measure the “right” answer?
You can divide AI tasks into two types: verifiable and non-verifiable. Coding is instantly verifiable - the code runs or it doesn’t. This is why models have improved so quickly; you can run experiments, check the answers, iterate, and try again.
Not so in healthcare. There’s a whole chasm of tasks that can’t be verified instantly. Sometimes confirming the answer requires a lab experiment. Or expert adjudication. Or the outcome hasn’t happened yet. Or there’s no pre-determined “right” answer that’s agreed upon.
Here’s one example: knee replacements. If you need surgery for this, you can either get a “partial” or a “total” knee replacement. Both are clinically defensible - there is no automatic “right” answer.
What we found in the data is that a huge part of the choice… comes down to who your surgeon is.
Patient characteristics, comorbidities, facilities, and year only explain 3.4% of the variation in the choice to perform partial or full replacement. But if you add the surgeon’s identity, it immediately becomes 14.8%. In other words, 77% of the explained variation in partial vs full can be answered by simply asking: “Who was the surgeon?”

This is an example of how “taste” is reflected in medical data, and we see it across many other complex healthcare situations. Who’s right when there isn’t a “right” answer among the best doctors in the world?
This is why training AI for medicine — especially the most difficult, judgment-based decisions — is very, very hard. Each decision requires coordination, context, and most importantly: human judgment.
Current benchmarks can test whether a model can retrieve the correct lab value. But actual care would require AI to interpret that lab value, incorporate new clinical information, communicate uncertainty, and influence the decisions of the patient, nurse, and physician. And all this across many interactions.
#2 - Data: Does the data represent real-world scenarios?
As we’ve parsed through terabytes of data, we’ve come to the same conclusion again and again: real medicine is never a clean question paired with one clean response. The data beneath those decisions spans time and modalities. All the data needs to be connected to provide a clear picture: clinical notes, labs, imaging, genomics, claims, patient messages…all that went into clinical decisions.
Another often overlooked part is privacy and context. We must ensure that sensitive patient data is privacy-protected from start-to-finish, without losing the important signal in the process. That’s difficult.

Consider the example above: on the left, you have an illustrative patient note that’s been anonymized by replacing every name and date with another. However, this destroys the note’s value – you need this information to understand what happened. Imagine this happening across different data modalities — the note needs to still connect to MRI scans, pathology reports, and other health systems.
Standard de-identification processes produce incoherent records that an AI model cannot learn from. The chart on the right illustrates our context-preserving de-identification approach, which shifts dates and changes names without compromising the value or privacy. All this is part of the data quality bar set for creating realistic evaluations.
#3 - The Referee: Who decides which model is best?
Creating healthcare benchmarks requires human judgment that gets imputed into the benchmark itself. Someone chooses the cases, prompts, settings, and what constitutes success or failure. That’s why it’s so important for the benchmark designer to understand both how healthcare is practiced and the nuances of the source data.
Otherwise, healthcare providers evaluate AI models based on either static tests, or trust the testing done by the model-builders themselves. That’s like a chef grading their own food. Right now, stakeholders have no reliable, independent way to compare different AI systems.
#4 - Gamification: What happens when passing the test becomes the goal?
When the benchmark is a test, there is an incentive to beat the test. Our testing shows that even something as simple as the answer choice ordering can change the outcome.
In a diagnosis task where models were asked to choose the best answer given the data provided, we gave the model four random permutations of the exact same answer choices. Same case, same answers - different order. And the models frequently changed their answers!

Even when the data, conditions, and prompts are constructed thoughtfully, models can become better at passing the test without improving outcomes. There is a very real danger of healthcare AI companies optimizing for static benchmarks that do not reflect the true point of care.
From better benchmarks to better healthcare
Building a better healthcare benchmark has to begin in the opposite direction. Start with the outcome that matters, then work backward to the task, then the data, and then finally the test.
This means moving beyond static questions and toward realistic, multi-turn scenarios built on real-world healthcare data. This also means having an independent evaluator of how AI models are performing.
But well-designed benchmarks are only the first step. The real test is what happens at the point of care, when AI interacts with clinicians and patients over time. Did the system reduce medical errors? Did it give clinicians meaningful time back? Did it lower costs or improve outcomes?
With the healthcare data we have access to at Protege, we’re connecting privacy-protected, multimodal, longitudinal healthcare data to specific real-world tasks so model builders and healthcare institutions can better evaluate AI. We hope this continues to build the bridge between static benchmarks and real-world healthcare outcomes.
We’re looking forward to building alongside other research-driven organizations that care deeply about this challenge. If you’re building in this space, we’d love to hear from you!
Read more at https://withprotege.ai/model-builders/healthcare, and reach out at https://withprotege.ai/contact.
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🧑💻 About the Author & the Editorial Team

About Engy Ziedan, Ph.D.
Engy Ziedan, Ph.D. is the Co-Founder and Chief Scientific Officer at Protege, the trusted source for AI-ready, real-world data needed for every stage of the AI model lifecycle. Ziedan is an applied microeconomist and Assistant Professor at Indiana University, and her work focuses on evaluations of AI using quasi-experimental and causal inference methods. She holds both a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from the University of Illinois Chicago, where she specialized in health economics.

About Josh Evans
Josh is a Managing Editor at The AI Collective Newsletter and leads content for The Byte. Outside of AIC, Josh works in Content Protection at Spotify.


